CAD/CHF Daily Chart

The CAD/CHF pair has been relatively operating in a range the whole of 2012 following a cap next to 0.94. Previous to this, range, the souk has maintained a bullish run since a drop of about 0.7119 recognized in August 2011. But you should also put into account the fact that the souk is currently trading on top of 200-day simple moving average. Even though the last 0.94 resistance  is yet to be broken, there are so many signs pointing to it.

- The on going averages seem to have an optimistic orientation with 200- period at the base with 100, 55, 21, and 8 showing an uptrend.
- Considering that lows have been showing an uptrend since Feb. 27 low around the 0.8935 level, it is clear that bears have more control this year.

CAD/CHF Weekly Chart

The CAD/CHF weekly table indicates a continuous decline in the market since 2008 when it experienced a high of about 1.25. The current rise in price since 2011 seems to be a price reversal against the bearish sway from 1.1142 to 0.7119. Here are some of the possible resistance levels in case the 0.94 level is broken.
- 200-wk SMA at 0.9550.
- 61.8 percent retracement appears at 0.96.
- There is a possibility of price drop at the 0.9880-0.99 region.
- Equality and the dropping channel price decline should serve as the main resistance area sooner than the situation becomes more promising on top of the dropping trend line.

Risk Events:

Three major factors that determine whether the pair can break and rise above 0.94.3;
1) CAN GDP (this Friday)
2) US NFP (this Friday) – deprived US information can harm the CAD and optimistic US data can assist to boost the CAD
3) CAN employment report (next Friday).